As the European Commission prepares proposals for a further round of enlargement, the two decades since the 2004 ‘big bang’ enlargement show the ups and downs that could lie ahead.

On Wednesday (1 May), the EU commemorates 20 years since the last large round of enlargement when ten countries – Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia – joined the bloc.

“We didn’t have a grand strategy – the only strategy was to manage. It was difficult, it was a whole series of negotiations, clarifications and conditions. It was diplomacy at full blast,” Vladimír Špidla, Czech prime minister at the time, told Euractiv.

“We learned very quickly and successfully to change legislation – hundreds of laws and other regulations were passed in a short time,” Špidla said, adding that EU membership has given the country stability it would not have otherwise had.

Soaring economic growth despite crises

Over the past 20 years, the EU’s economy has grown by 27%, with those countries that joined in 2004 witnessing substantial economic growth above the EU average.

Between 1994 and 2004, trade between old and new member states grew almost threefold, and among the new members, fivefold. CEE countries grew on average by 4% annually from the start of the accession process until the global financial crisis hit in 2008.

In the two decades since accession, the economies of Poland and Malta have each more than doubled, while Slovakia’s has expanded by 80%.

Seven of the 10 new member states have adopted the euro as their currency.

“We hear again and again that large funds are available, but we need projects that meet European requirements, and we don’t have those projects ready,” Vīķe-Freiberga said.

While the current EU enlargement debate raises concerns about the economic impact another accession round could have, EU officials insist that for current candidate countries, there is an unmistakable economic case to be made.

“Look at those countries that joined [in 2004], we’ve seen very little problems with economic prosperity, some of those countries are on good track to be economic powerhouses, like Poland,” one EU official said, adding it is necessary to analyse how the accession of more countries fits into the EU’s trade and growth strategy.

They added, “And, of course, how to prevent democratic backsliding, as we’ve seen with some of the new members.”

‘Mental integration’

While the accession impact on democracy in the ten countries has mainly been positive, with improvements in judicial reforms, anti-corruption measures, and civil society development, it has not always been a guarantor of change.

“[In Hungary], we learned that economic integration is not easy but much easier than developing, merging, coming together [in terms of] mentality,” former Hungarian prime minister Péter Medgyessy told Euractiv.

Challenges remain, notably regarding concerns over judicial independence and media freedom in certain states, with Hungary being a prime example.

The democratic backsliding under the incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government has underscored some of the EU’s limitations, with the bloc having limited tools to compel errant member states to comply.

Malta has also witnessed backsliding in media freedom, corruption, and the rule of law, and it saw the assassination of a journalist, Daphne Caruana Galizia, in 2017, which is still unsolved.

While Estonia has become the prime example for successful EU integration, Bulgaria and Romania who were unable to join in 2004 due to concerns over the rule of law and corruption, remain outliers.

‘Old’ vs ‘new’ members

Those politicians involved in the enlargement around 20 years ago, contacted by Euractiv, agreed on the subject of admitting new member states.

“It is also a matter of fact that it takes some time for the ‘old’ member states to fully accept the ‘new’ ones, avoid the behaviour of infallibility and profit from the experience and the DNA of the newcomers,” Pavel Telička, former chief negotiator for Czechia’s accession to the EU, told Euractiv.

“The EU is not necessarily immediately stronger with enlargement. It takes time and will to integrate the member states and to cement the EU,” he said, adding that this is even more challenging now as member states often prioritise national issues over common prospects.

Telička also acknowledged that the EU has managed to deal with unforeseen crises and in this respect “new member states outperformed the majority of the old ones”.

Split remains on future enlargement

According to the latest ECFR survey, however, there remains a clear split on future EU enlargement between ‘old’ and ‘new’ EU countries.

Poll respondents in Austria (53%), Germany (50%) and France (44%) believe the EU should not pursue any immediate enlargement.

In Romania (51%) and Poland (48%), a near majority believe the EU should be looking to add new member states.

Denmark as one of the few countries remains an outlier among the ‘old’ member states, with just 37% opposing any immediate new accession rounds.

According to ECFR’s polling data, there are concerns also that enlargement could pose security risks.

“As European policymakers rework the EU’s enlargement framework, it is important that they consider the security aspects of this process,” Engjellushe Morina, ECFR’s senior policy fellow on enlargement said.

“There is a lot the EU can do to stabilise and strengthen candidate countries, which are on the path to full membership,” she added.

Cyprus example

For Cyprus, a small, divided Mediterranean island nation, EU accession had represented exactly such a security aspect.

“The EU offers a political safety net for Cyprus in view of Turkish expansionism but given the geopolitical instability with autocratic regimes, it is a necessity that the EU has a significant geopolitical role and strategic autonomy”, Socialist MEP Costas Mavrides told Euractiv.

After a Turkish invasion in 1974, Ankara occupies 37% of the island.

The EU and the United Nations insist on a solution to the Cyprus problem based on a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation but Brussels rejected the scenario of a two-state solution, which Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar recently pushed.

For Mavrides, the EU has failed to protect Cyprus through a real solidarity policy, by choosing to follow an appeasement policy towards Turkey.

“The heavy sanctions in the case of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine while offering ‘positive agenda’ to the Turkish regime remains a major double standard that feeds the mistrust towards EU institutions”, he said, adding that the EU cannot be truly united as long as Cyprus is divided by Turkish occupying forces.

Except for the case of Turkey, Mavrides said that the EU membership has had a positive impact on Nicosia in several issues, from the country’s rule of law to the economy’s stability.

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