Péter Magyar appears so tailor-made to challenge Viktor Orbán for the leadership of Hungary that he could have been created by an algorithm.

In just two years, Magyar, 45, has run a highly controlled, one-man campaign, carefully calibrated to exploit weaknesses in Orbán’s governing system – one he long belonged to.

Harnessing alternative and independent media, he has unified much of the democratic opposition behind him, building an upbeat, grassroots campaign that has attracted mass support across Hungary.

In a country where media and public institutions are heavily tilted against the opposition, Magyar now stands on the cusp of a victory that could reshape EU politics and sideline Europe’s most consequential populist. Leading pollster Median has even predicted his Tisza Party could secure a two-thirds majority.

“Fidesz can’t really win even with fraud. Unless there is some enormous fraud, or they completely overturn the laws,” he recently told Telex.

Insider becomes outsider

Arguably the strongest challenger to Orbán in his continuous 16-year stint in power, Magyar has a telling advantage: he came from within the system and the coteries of power. In a reversal of roles, he now leads a populist campaign against Orbán, portraying him as the head of an out-of-touch establishment.

The ex-husband of former Justice minister Judit Varga, Magyar burst onto the scene in February 2024 with a video interview accusing Orbán and his circle of corruption and of siphoning off EU funds.

For much of their time in Brussels – where his then-wife worked for the European People’s Party and he served as a diplomat working for Hungary on inter-institutional affairs – Varga was the political star, while he played a secondary role.

Hungarian media reports described him as a man who was frustrated at his own lack of professional advancement in the Fidesz system, and he would often fly off the handle at Orbán’s most loyal apparatchiks.

His emergence came amid a scandal over a presidential pardon granted to a man convicted of covering up a paedophilia scandal at an orphanage. The affair forced the resignations of Varga – then seemingly untouchable and on the cusp of leading Fidesz’s 2024 European elections list – and Katalin Novák, the country’s president.

The scandal and resignations, as well as Magyar’s emergence, showed a regime in trouble.

Since then, Magyar has built Tisza into Hungary’s leading opposition force, accusing the government of accusing the government of using its resources, from the intelligence services, to paparazzi after him, his party and his family.

His relationship with Varga has also remained the country’s defining soap opera. In early 2024 he brandished a secret recording of his wife apparently incriminating other leading members of Fidesz’s top ranks. She hit back, alleging he physically, emotionally and verbally abused her, and spilled details of their tempestuous marriage.

Varga, now out of politics, re-emerged on the eve of the election, all but endorsing Orbán against her ex-partner in a Facebook post and hinting at a future memoir. Some speculate she could return to politics.

Orbán vs Zelenskyy

Orbán, the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, has framed the contest as a battle between himself and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, arguing that Magyar is a mere puppet of the EU institutions itching to drag Hungary into war with Russia. Posters aligning Magyar with Zelenskyy appeared across Budapest.

Magyar has taken a cautious line on Ukraine, opposing fast-track EU membership and avoiding commitments on military support.

In Brussels, his MEPs have tacked closer to the Fidesz line on votes on wedge issues, such as Ukraine and migration. They were even punished by the European People’s Party leader Manfred Weber – another target of Fidesz campaign – because they refused to support Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission in a vote of no confidence.

Back home, Magyar has campaigned relentlessly, crisscrossing the country, leading marches to Transylvania and holding multiple rallies daily. He closed his campaign in Debrecen with what he said were up to 30,000 supporters.

Back home Magyar has kept the show on the road, crisscrossing the country at a blistering pace, leading a march to meet ethnic Hungarians in Romanian Transylvania and campaigning with thousands of supporters several times a day for the past weeks. He closed his campaign in Debrecen, the country’s second city, on Saturday with what he said were up to 30,000 supporters.

Noses held

Many voters can’t stand Fidesz but are nonetheless disquieted by the personal scandals and especially the domestic abuse allegations. These are exploited by Orbán’s Fidesz, still trying to resurrect the party’s image as the defender of family values after the paedophilia scandal.

“I don’t believe he has the competence to be prime minister,” Balázs Hidvéghi, an MP and deputy head of the prime minister’s office, told Euractiv.

“He’s obviously a very frustrated man who’s had a very negative family history,” the former MEP said at a campaign stop in the city of Székesfehérvár.

Back in Budapest, left-wing voters are preparing to hold their noses and vote for Magyar anyway. “The only thing who can stop a bad authoritarian is a good authoritarian,” said Lukács, a 29-year-old bookseller.

Others view their support as purely tactical. First-time voter Tamás said he and his friends are only voting for Tisza as a protest vote against ruling Fidesz, but remain unconvinced by Magyar himself.

There have been other scandals. Magyar’s ex-girlfriend Evelin Vogel – who leaked recordings of him – also accused him of domestic abuse, and there’s an ongoing police investigation for stealing a man’s phone and throwing it into the Danube in summer 2024.

Clashes with the press

Magyar’s relationship with the press has been highly contentious. He has spurned interviews in the international press and given the Fidesz “propaganda” – as he calls it – a wide berth.

In a widely publicised incident, Magyar stormed out of a live broadcast on the opposition centrist commercial television channel ATV.

Péter Magyar clashed with host Egon Rónai after being handed a dossier detailing how often the channel had invited him to appear in recent months, contradicting his claims of a boycott.

Refusing to accept the document, the Tisza Party leader repeatedly asked, “What is the question, editor?” before walking off the set.

Following the broadcast, Magyar took to social media to condemn the channel. He labelled the opposition network “Fidesz’s house television” and accused the presenter of protecting the ruling party with lies instead of discussing the recent decisions of his 1.34 million voters.

After the broadcast, he took to social media to condemn the channel, branding it “Fidesz’s house television” and accusing the presenter of shielding the ruling party instead of addressing the choices of his 1.34 million voters.

Despite this, Magyar’s rise has been fuelled by social media, particularly Facebook, which he manages personally.

“He has risen to the occasion and even impressed big Viktor himself. He deserves his chance,” said one figure close to Orbán.

“His real test comes with the scrutiny that follows a victory. There is more to governing than social media. He obviously has personal drive but what is his intellectual philosophy? Is he just Fidesz-lite?”

(bw, cs)