The unofficial starting gun on the race to be the next president of the European Parliament has been fired, even if, for now, Roberta Metsola has no declared opponent.

Matthias Miersch, leader of the social democrats in the German parliament, told reporters in Brussels on Tuesday that the role should pass from Metsola, a centre-right Maltese MEP, to a candidate from the Socialists and Democrats group.

Metsola has been president since 2022. Although she has not publicly stated her intentions, she is widely tipped to be hunting for an unprecedented third two-and-a-half-year mandate. Her chances, however, depend partly on whether the socialists are willing to run someone against her.

“We regard René Repasi and Katarina Barley as two outstanding Social Democrats here in Brussels,” said Miersch, announcing he would hold talks with Manfred Weber, the EPP leader, later this month over Metsola.

“There is an agreement, and I expect that German parliamentarians, like Manfred Weber, will comply with the deal.”

The leaders of the EPP, S&D and Renew groups signed a piece of paper in 2024 outlining what should happen to the Parliament’s most powerful role at the mid-terms in January 2027.

Six physical copies of the note exist, but it has never been made public, and the EPP and S&D disagree about what it binds the groups to do.

If the socialists refuse to endorse a fresh term for Metsola, which would make her the longest-serving president in the Parliament’s history, she would need the support of the far-right, teeing up a potentially explosive scenario.

Privately, EPP sources wonder why the S&D has not come forward with a candidate yet, with just over six months until the vote.

The German MEP said that Miersch’s was a referring to the broader agreement of centrist forces to work together in the Parliament, and that he meant he and Barley could “play a relevant role and … have something to contribute”.

Barley has not declared her interest in the job – as a former German justice minister and one of Parliament’s 14 vice-presidents, she is regarded as the S&D’s strongest potential contender.

Asked about the Parliament presidency race last month, socialist leader Iratxe García said she was focused on the task at hand.

Weber, meanwhile, has played down speculation about the mid-terms, saying discussions will not begin until September. “Let’s have a calm summer,” he said in May.

(mm, bw)