As the war in the Middle East continues, the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian territory have drawn not only retaliation from Tehran but also from a network of militias in Lebanon and Iraq.

Following attacks by Shia militias in Iraq on US bases in Erbil on Monday, Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah – whose leadership is closely linked to Tehran – launched a drone attack on Cyprus, which sits in the eastern Mediterranean little more than 200km from Lebanon.

Hezbollah also fired dozens of rockets and drones toward Israel. In response, the Israeli military reported “limited ground incursions” into Lebanon, describing them as a tactical measure to protect northern communities.

After the 7 October 2023 attacks, Hezbollah continuously struck northern Israel for months while the country in turn eliminated much of the group’s senior leadership, including its longtime head Hassan Nasrallah, and destroyed large parts of its weapons arsenal.

Although Hezbollah’s military capacity has been reduced since 2024, the group remains a threat, said Sarit Zehavi, director of the Israeli Alma Center, which monitors Hezbollah activity.

“They still possess roughly 25,000 rockets and missiles and about 1,000 drones. They are working constantly and effectively to replenish their military capabilities and refuse to surrender their arms.”

But a collapse of Iran’s regime would pose an existential challenge for Hezbollah, which receives financing, training, and access to advanced weapons from Tehran.

However, without decisive action from the Lebanese state, which on Monday announced plans to ban Hezbollah’s military activities, the group is unlikely to disappear, Zehavi said.

Beirut and its army have little appetite for a confrontation with Hezbollah, she explains, partly due to the legacy of Lebanon’s civil war and the significant number of sympathisers within government and security institutions, including the military.

How seriously the government enforces its pledge will only become clear if the army begins arresting Hezbollah leaders and removing the group from political life. Zehavi noted that this would also require replacing the “vast network of social institutions” the organisation operates.

(vib, ow)