The Netherlands and Hungary are unlikely to get an opt-out from the EU’s migration policy, rarely has it ever happened, when Denmark got theirs, they got lucky – and France got the Strasbourg seat.

Last Friday, newly appointed Dutch Prime Minister, Dick Schoof, announced the toughest asylum reform in the country’s history, including a call for an opt-out from the EU’s migration rules.

Shortly after the Dutch announcement, Hungarian Minister for European Affairs, Bóka János, joined the fray. On X, he wrote “the Hungarian government will join the Netherlands in asking for an opt-out from EU asylum and migration rules,” before adding the crucial “if a Treaty amendment allows it.”

For the Netherlands and Hungary to secure an opt-out, all member states would need to agree to reopen and amend the treaties.

On Wednesday (18 September), a Commission spokesperson acknowledged that “there’s no treaty change upcoming.”

So, while the announcement of the Dutch opt-out was hailed as a turning point in their migration policy, with Geert Wilders calling it a ‘mini-nexit’, there’s little chance that the vision will actually materialise.

Many Dutch politicians probably envied Denmark’s position, but the truth is, we arrived here through a mix of poor planning and missteps.

In 1991, the European Communities were planning on becoming the European Union by way of the Maastricht Treaty.

Convinced that the Danes were ready to take European integration to the next level, the Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Uffe Ellemann-Jensen, at the time arranged the Danish referendum before any other member state had had a chance to vote on it.

With 50.7% of the voters backing no, the Danes narrowly voted to reject the new treaty. As other member states were ratifying it, the Danish ‘no’ became a problem not only for the small Scandinavian country but also for the rest of the soon-to-be Union as all states needed to ratify for the treaty to come into effect.

To accommodate the obstinate Danes, heads of government met in the Scottish capital shortly before Christmas. The Edinburgh Agreement gave the Danes four opt-outs: on home and judicial affairs, union citizenship, the Euro, and common defence policy.

Put to a second vote, the Danes finally budged and ratified the Maastricht Treaty.

Curiously, the French government seized the moment in Scotland, because, while the text of the Maastricht Treaty does not mention the European Parliament’s seat in Strasbourg, the Edinburgh Agreement does.

Both the Danish opt-outs and the Strasbourg seat were later established in the Amsterdam Treaty of 1997. So next time you rant about the Parliament’s travelling circus, blame a Dane. My email address is in the footer.

The governments in The Hague and Budapest know very well that the chances of treaty change and getting opt-outs are slim. Denmark’s opt-outs resulted from a mixture of chance and necessity, not a strategy built on refusal alone.

Yet, Hungary and the Netherlands are sending a clear signal to Europe: They are not here to compromise or negotiate a middle ground but rather to draw a firm line on migration, regardless of the political cost or the practical limitations.

As it stands, they will have to wait.

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