The conservative CDU is pulling a risky experiment this week, in a bid to defeat the far-right in two state elections in East Germany this Sunday (1 September). But at least they’re trying.

After the deadly stabbing at a folk festival last Friday, for which a 26-year-old Syrian man has been arrested and terrorist group ISIS has taken responsibility, Merz kicked off a debate on migration policy that dominated the whole week.

His demands were far-reaching, notably to stop the admission of Syrian and Afghan refugees, permanently re-install checks at the German border, and reject every asylum seeker who has entered through a third safe country (meaning everyone).

While critics quickly pointed out that many of the proposals would be at odds with EU law, Merz’s deputies – such as former health minister Jens Spahn – loudly declared their annoyance with this line of argument, demanding to change EU rules.

“We have to get out of this situation where we have basically shackled ourselves almost Kafkaesque by international European regulations,” said Spahn on public television on Wednesday.

What Merz and his colleagues were trying to do can be explained by the two state elections in the former East of the country this Sunday, in Saxony and Thuringia.

Both states see far-right AfD and conservative CDU battling to become the strongest party, populist left-wing BSW polling third, and all federal government parties (Social Democrats, Greens, Liberals) dangerously close – or already below – the 5% parliamentary threshold.

One of the main drivers for the AfD vote is the outrage over the country’s migration policy, which many fear will be additionally boosted by the Solingen attack.

The elections are personally important to Merz, as his party family agreed to nominate their candidate for German chancellor – a post that Merz has been after for more than two decades – after this month’s third state election, in Brandenburg on 22 September.

Thus, he pulled a risky experiment, copying much of the far-right’s rhetoric, and policy demands, adding the final nail in the coffin for former CDU chancellor Angela Merkel’s open border policy the party already broke with earlier this year.

For all its tragic background, Merz’s move could have the potential to finally solve a debate that political observers have had for years, which is whether copying the far-right can diminish them or inevitably make them even stronger.

One camp – rooted in political science, or so it says – claims that copying the far-right’s talking points will only make them stronger, as once migration becomes the dominant issue, people will rather vote for the “original”.

The other camp – rooted more in something claimed to be “common sense” – states that by solving the problems voters get angry about, reasons to vote for extremists fade, and people will return to the centre.

It is the camp of Jens Spahn, who famously said that “either the democratic centre ends irregular migration or irregular migration ends the democratic centre.”

Will it work? We will see on Sunday, 6 pm when exit polls are expected for the two states – and Merz’s future could be sealed.

At least, though, the CDU is trying – while Olaf Scholz’s centre-left SPD (S&D) delivered a weak and contradictory performance.

SPD co-leader Saskia Esken raised eyebrows with a TV interview last week Sunday, claiming, “I don’t think we can learn too much from this attack in particular.”

Scholz later said the opposite, arguing on Wednesday, that he would “owe it to the victims of Solingen” to reduce irregular migration, promising to do so “without jeopardising international agreements, common European law and our constitution.”

While the government agreed on a package of new security measures on Thursday, much of its communication focussed on restricting knives – which many see as a distraction as long knives, such as the one used in Solingen, are already forbidden at public events.

Thus, if the centre does hold in Saxony and Thuringia – and the right-wing extremists of AfD can be stopped from entering any state government for another five years – it will most likely be the success of the CDU.

And if the conservatives are indeed successful, many political scientists might have to update their theories.

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The Roundup

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has set the bar high for her second term, stating during her July speech to the European Parliament that decisions taken over the next five years will determine Europe’s “place in the world for the next 50 years.”

Bulgaria submitted to Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, two candidates for Commissioner, reportedly becoming the only country to answer her request of proposing one male and one female applicant, on Friday (30 August).

Hungarian consortium Ganz-MaVag withdrew its €619 billion bid for Spanish train maker Talgo on Friday (30 August), just days after Madrid blocked the purchase on national security ground

The European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) is investigating former Lithuanian MEP Viktor Uspaskich for allegedly defrauding EU funds of more than half a million euros, widening a probe that previously focused on one of his assistants.

Look out for…

• European Commission holds the 5th International Ship Autonomy and Sustainability Summit, in Hamburg Germany.
• The Council of the EU holds an informal meeting of the General Affairs Council in Budapest, Hungary.
• European Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski is attending the MED9 Ministerial Meeting in Cyprus, he will hold talks with Cypriot Minister of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment Maria Panayiotou and French Minister of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty Marc Fesneau