Promising crop forecasts suggest olive oil price relief
A better olive harvest expected this autumn in key EU producers could put an end to the sky-high olive oil prices seen earlier this year, experts say.
Olive oil prices in the EU reached record highs last January, surging by up to 50% compared to the previous year and leading to significant changes in consumers’ choices.
The 2023/2024 season was challenged by high temperatures, drought, and rising energy costs, which put the market to the test.
“Olive oil prices across all producing countries have nearly doubled within the last two years,” Dimitra Aliefs, economist and member of the Scientific Society of Olive Cultivation Encyclopaedists (4E), told Euractiv.
While prices have been falling since January, they remain about 20% higher than last year, according to data published last month by the International Olive Council.
“[However,] forecasts for the 2024/2025 olive harvest are much better, especially in Spain,” Aliefs added.
The country produces 45% of the world’s olive oil and 70% of the EU’s. Thus, its yields influence prices elsewhere in the bloc. Similarly, Aliefs mentioned good harvest forecasts in Greece, the bloc’s third-largest producer.
Rafael Picó, director of the Spanish Association of the Industry and Export of Olive Oils (Asoliva), also painted an optimistic picture in an interview with Euractiv. He said that the spring rains in Spain greatly benefited the olive groves and that production costs were gradually returning to normal.
But it will take time for improved yields to impact prices.
“Although production starts on 1 October, [the new stock] won’t be available on the national market until the end of November and internationally until late December or January,” said Picó.
According to Alief, olive prices will likely go from almost €9 per kilo in recent months to the ‘normal’ €5 to €6 per kilo.
Sunflower oil take over
In Spain, where olive oil plays a key economic and cultural role, households switched from their beloved ‘liquid gold’ to more affordable sunflower oil, which became the top-selling oil in early 2024 for the first time in decades.
“When prices get that high, consumers have to turn to substitute products,” said Alief, adding that cheaper sunflower oil has made its way into Mediterranean kitchens traditionally dominated by olive oil.
In addition, Picó highlighted the impact of higher prices on the bloc’s sales abroad, with Spanish olive oil exports falling by around 40% in volume in the first half of 2024 compared to 2022.
“[There are] markets that have collapsed,” he said, pointing to Asian countries where the attractiveness of olive oil is closely tied to its price and alternative vegetable oils are very competitive.
In contrast, he said countries with higher per capita income, such as the United States, have remained ‘more loyal’ to the product.
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