The relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran is at its worst since long time. For the second time in just months, Baku has warned its citizens against traveling to Iran. Following the January terrorist attack in the Azerbaijani embassy in Iran there has been a mutual expulsion of some diplomatic personnel and the suspension of Azerbaijan’s embassy operation. In February, the Azerbaijani authorities detained nearly 40 people on suspicion of spying for Iran. In March an anti-Iranian member of Parliament was wounded in Baku, with the involvement of the Islamic Republic in an attempt to kill him. Some scholars even wonder about a risk of a war between the two countries. Actually, the President of Azerbaijan is one of the few heads of state in the world willing to call out Iran’s “state-sponsored terrorism”. But why Iran is so interested in destabilize Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijan is in a delicate situation as it is subject of increasing interest by the West as a useful energetic hub, for the sake of the very much needed broad strategic diversification to disenfranchise Moscow. In the competitive global security landscape represented by both Russian and Chinese attempts of domination in the former Soviet stans, Azerbaijan is becoming an important geopolitical asset for the EU to link Europe to the Caspian basin and Central Asia region, and contain in these way the attempt of the two Asian empires to reinforce their spheres of influence and dominance. Azerbaijan is also still in a state of ceasefire with Armenia, the ally of Russia and Iran that, as recently revealed, play a pivotal role by serving as a central hub for supplying sanctioned goods to Russia, including military equipment helping in the aggression to Ukraine. Furthermore, the Azeri proposal to have the Zangezur corridor to bypass Armenia and connect directly to Turkey, is strongly opposed by Armenia through Iranian backing, as Iran doesn’t want to be cut out of the land connection to Armenia and so Russia. Iran’s opening of its consulate in Kapan recently, clearly shows how Iran wants to increase its support for Yerevan’s regional aspirations, which are de facto contrary to the West’s objectives in the region. But Iran wants to expand its sphere of influence in the South Caucasus even through Azerbaijan. Actually, a significant segment of the Azerbaijani population is Shi’a and so Iran considers Azerbaijan as its backyard for the expansion of the influence of its brand of Shi’ism in the region. Some scholars argues that the reason of the increasing conflict is that Azerbaijan is also a strong ally of Israel, which is a guarantee to the broad Western security compact in the region but a threat to Iran. But more than this there is a deep reason of the Iranian hostility to Azerbaijan, that started already since 1991 Azerbaijani independence: almost a third of the population of Iran is comprised of ethnic Azerbaijanis, and a strong secular Azerbaijan on a Western trajectory would threaten the stability of the Ayatollah regime, as an inspiration for its own ethnic Azerbaijani community, already protesting for greater rights.

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