Beijing needs the EU and Europe to be passive regarding tensions between China and the USA. And Beijing wants exactly the same in the context of the war in Ukraine – it wants Europe to betray its key military and security ally – the United States, writes Roman Rukomeda.

Those who doubted that China had blessed Putin’s war against Ukraine and Europe from the very beginning and now continue to be the biggest Russian supporter in this aggression should think twice after the statement by Lu Shaye.

But when he commented on the sovereignty of post-Soviet countries, the Chinese Ambassador in France forgot Ukraine’s interpretation that Russia did not finish the legal procedure to become the recognised legal successor of the Soviet Union, meaning Russia’s presence in the UN and the UN Security Council has no legal basis as far as Kyiv is concerned.

The same applies to Russia’s privatisation of all Soviet assets worldwide. Moscow simply appropriated those assets. Additionally, Russia remains one of these post-Soviet states, and when the Chinese ambassador doubts the sovereignty of post-Soviet states, he is also casting doubt about Russia’s power.

The statement of Lu Shaye, unless it is his point of view, which by Beijing’s standards is almost impossible, is a Chinese test for Europe and a message to the Western countries if they want to understand if Chinese mediation is possible or not.

The statement is also a test to check how many European states would pretend nothing happened and how many would react. This will help China make conclusions about the actual situation in Europe and the willingness of European states to do business as usual with Beijing despite the growing risk of war in Taiwan.

China wants to see how deeply it can split the European allies, including NATO. It is a genuine attempt to break the partners before the major battle. Such a trick is among the favourites in the Russian playbook.

Before it started the massive military aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, Putin’s Russia did everything possible to spread seeds of doubt and uncertainty among all the European states. As a result, some EU states were silently watching the Russian aggression for the first two-three months, being ready for negotiations with the aggressor.

If the European position had been stronger from the beginning, the tragedies in Ukraine’s Bucha, Izyum and other towns could have been avoided.

The signal China is sending to Europe is that the spheres of influence are above international law, even in the 21st century. It is absolutely identical to Russian ultimatums that are trying to give birth to the Soviet Union 2.0 via the military occupation of all former post-Soviet states.

The wish of some European states for strategic autonomy is natural and logical. But having the resources for that is necessary, especially in the defence and security spheres. When you do not have such resources and capabilities to take distance from the only natural military ally of Europe – the United States – it’s either strategic blindness or treachery.

It is crucial to remember that Ukraine, with the help of its allies in the EU, NATO, North America and throughout the world, is fighting for the values of the democratic world, for freedom, sovereignty, human rights and liberties. It is unfortunate to observe that after more than a year of war in Ukraine, some of the top European politicians, besides Victor Orbán, continue to play on the side of Russian and Chinese regimes.

Beijing needs the EU and Europe to be passive regarding tensions between China and the USA. And Beijing wants precisely the same in the context of the war in Ukraine – it wants Europe to betray its key military and security ally – the United States. Those European countries who will play the Chinese game would destroy Europe’s last absolute military protection and provoke war in many EU countries.

This is why China cannot be a peacekeeper in Ukraine, as it is already part of the war on the Russian side. Peace in Europe is not China’s priority; its real goal is to alleviate Europe in the future conflict with the US.