Giorgia Meloni is facing mounting pressure over defence spending as NATO and EU commitments clash with domestic opposition and a tightening electoral race.

The shift became clear last week when Meloni threatened to scale back Italy’s participation in the EU’s €150 billion SAFE defence loan programme unless Brussels extended fiscal flexibility measures to help offset the impact of the Middle East energy crisis.

The move opened a rift with Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, a strong advocate of Italy’s defence boost, with local media reporting “shouts and slammed doors” during a cabinet meeting – although Crosetto publicly denied reports of tensions.

Meloni is still reeling from a bruising defeat in last March’s high-stakes judicial referendum, a setback that triggered a wave of resignations and laid bare the fractures within her government.

Among those upping the pressure on Meloni is coalition partner Matteo Salvini. The deputy PM’s Lega party – which sits in the far-right Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament – has recently voted against the EU’s proposed ReArm plan.

Meloni’s troubles

According to Lorenzo Castellani, a political scientist at Rome’s LUISS University, public scepticism towards military spending is forcing Meloni into an increasingly delicate balancing act.

“The polls show widespread scepticism toward increased military spending, and the government is also struggling to explain what these additional efforts and the strengthening of defence capabilities are actually for,” Castellani said.

Meloni is wary of bolstering pacifist opposition parties and is keen not to alienate voters, particularly older centre-right supporters more focused on economic concerns.

According to the Eurispes’ report Italia 2026, 44.2% of Italians now view defence expenditure as a cost for the country, compared to 32.1% who consider it a strategic investment, with nearly a quarter of respondents unable to express a clear position.

Cabinet tensions

The defence minister is in a “very difficult position,” Castellani explained, as Meloni’s slowdown on defence policy leaves him exposed after committing Italy to increasingly ambitious defence pledges in the EU.

Crosetto’s isolation within the cabinet was laid bare on Thursday when Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani confirmed Italy would scale back its planned request for SAFE defence loans, initially expected to total around €15 billion.

“It is not the moment to access that loan in such a significant way, so we will ask for less,” Tajani said.

The scale of the cut remains unclear ahead of the 31 May deadline for submitting procurement projects. Rome is reportedly considering reducing its SAFE loan request by up to two-thirds, from €15 billion to €4–5 billion, and limiting it to existing contracts.

Rome has also yet to respond to President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to extend France’s nuclear deterrence to European partners, a hesitation partly attributed to the strained relationship between Meloni and Macron.

Franco-Italian liberal MEP Sandro Gozi argued that Meloni’s distrust of France and her own political entourage had left her “painted into a corner”, preventing Italy from joining what he called a key initiative for European strategic autonomy.

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