BERLIN – After a wave of Israeli decapitation strikes wiped out large parts of Iran’s senior command, Tehran’s new leadership is now fighting for survival – just like the ayatollahs planned.

The strikes, which targeted top military and security figures, mark one of the most direct blows to Iran’s power structure in decades. While the killings have reshuffled the hierarchy at the top, they have not – at least for now – produced visible cracks in the regime’s institutional machinery.

Units of the Basij militia – usually deployed to suppress dissent – have already been activated, Shine said, signalling that the regime is bracing for unrest at home.

Yet the system of the Islamic Republic, Shine argued, was built precisely for moments like this.

“The system does not depend on one person,” Shine said. “It is structured so that key positions within the political and security apparatus can be replaced quickly.” Iranian leaders had long anticipated decapitation scenarios in wartime.

When Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammad Pakpour was killed, he was swiftly replaced by his deputy Ahmad Vahidi – a veteran insider and former interior and defence minister. Vahidi is wanted by Interpol over the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people.

Even before the current escalation, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had tasked Ali Larijani – secretary of the Supreme National Security Council – with overseeing military and political efforts linked to the conflict.

“Khamenei understood that President Pezeshkian is not capable enough to organise military efforts,” Shine said. “Hence Ali Larijani got the task of keeping the system running.”

An interim leadership has since been announced, comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i and Guardian Council member Alireza Arafi.

Arafi, Shine noted, could emerge as a successor to Khamenei. “In a way he is even more radical,” she said, adding that preparations for selecting a new leader are already under way.

The choreography appears deliberate – an effort to project continuity and avoid any perception of a power vacuum.

Widening the battlefield

More striking, Shine argued, is Tehran’s decision to expand the confrontation to Arab Gulf states. In recent years, Iran had sought to mend ties with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia while maintaining pragmatic relations with Qatar.

Tehran claims it is targeting only US bases. “That is obviously not true,” Shine said, pointing to reported strikes on hotels in the Emirates and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

Within the Iranian leadership, she said, an internal debate preceded the escalation. The faction that prevailed believes widening the war – potentially including closure of the Strait of Hormuz – will drive up oil prices and pressure the international community into pushing for a cease-fire.

“They believe that if oil prices rise, it will put pressure on President Trump,” Shine said. “But once Trump decides to attack, this won’t stop him.”

(cs, mk)