June 23. 2024. 12:36

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Spanish centre-right polling ahead of progressive forces

Spanish centre-right Partido Popular (PP/EPP) would likely win if a general election were held today, while the recent emergence of left-wing party Sumar may not be enough to boost the chances of all progressive forces, including the currently governing socialist PSOE and left-wing Unidas Podemos, to govern for four more years.

According to a Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo published on Monday, the PP would win the general election, set for December, with 30.2% and 30.5% of support, translating into 135 seats in parliament, but not enough to govern alone.

However, added to the 40-41 MPs that the far-right party VOX could obtain (13.9% of the voting intention), the right-wing camp would be very near to the absolute majority of 176 MPs (from 350 in total) required, or would fall just one MP short of this figure, the Sigma Dos poll predicts, El Confidencial reported.

Division of the left, a heavy political toll

On the other hand, the recent emergence of Sumar in the Spanish electoral arena would not offer the punch the Iberian left needs to revalidate the current coalition government between PSOE and left-wing Unidas Podemos (GUE-NGL).

The PSOE would obtain 91 seats and, if running separately, Sumar would get 35, and Unidas Podemos would have eight, two fewer than if they had reached an agreement to run together, the Sigma Dos survey predicted.

A similar trend is shown by an NC Report poll published on Monday by La Razón.

According to the poll, the PP would obtain between 142 and 144 MPs, which added to the 41 to 43 of Vox, would comfortably reach the absolute majority to govern.

On the other hand, the PSOE would obtain between 89 and 91 representatives, while Sumar would gather between 28 and 30 seats, and Unidas Podemos would drop to between three and five.

Meanwhile, a 40dB barometer for El País and private radio station Cadena SER brings Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to a virtual tie -in voting intention- with the PP, although the survey does not take into account what effect the influence of Sumar can have in the left-wing camp.

A coalition PP-VOX?

According to the 40db barometer, the PSOE would obtain 27.4% of the votes compared to 28% for the PP, almost a tie, which does not translate directly into a tie regarding seats, as the PP would have 122 representatives compared to PSOE’s 109.

VOX would be the third most voted force with 14.2% and 42 seats, followed by Unidas Podemos, with 11.8% of the votes and 31 MPs, the 40db barometer predicts.

Meanwhile, a recent Gad3 poll for ABC predicted a victory for the PP, with 32.4% of the votes and between 139 and 143 seats, a result that would allow the centre-right formation to govern with VOX, provided the far-right party obtains at least 14.9% of the votes and between 43 and 45 MPs.

Spain will hold its municipal elections on 28 May, which many believe will be the first litmus test for Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s governing coalition with Unidas Podemos, a relation currently under pressure.

General elections will be held in December, when the country is in the final month of its EU Council presidency, which starts on 1 July.

(Fernando Heller | EuroEFE.EURACTIV.es)