Could Moldova join the EU by merging with Romania?
BUCHAREST – Moldovan President Maia Sandu is increasingly raising reunification with Romania as a potential fallback route into the EU if Moldova’s accession process stalls.
Speaking after receiving the European Parliament’s Order of Merit alongside Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor, last week, Sandu said EU membership remained essential for Moldova’s democratic survival.
Asked whether reunification with Romania could become an alternative route into the EU, Sandu said Chisinau would “consider other options” if its accession bid stalled. It was at least the third time this year that Sandu publicly raised the possibility of Moldova joining Romania in an international setting.
Reunification is not legally impossible. But it would be fraught with political and geopolitical difficulties. “International law allows the peaceful change of borders if both countries agree, so there’s no argument there,” said Iulian Fota, a former Romanian deputy foreign minister and presidential adviser.
Moldova, which shares linguistic and cultural ties with Romania but spent much of the past two centuries under Tsarist and Soviet rule before gaining independence in 1991, remains deeply divided on the issue.
Support for reunification stands at around 40% in Moldova – where roughly 850,000 of the country’s 2.4 million inhabitants hold Romanian passports – compared to about 70% in Romania.
But major hurdles remained, not least Romania’s capacity to finance Moldova’s development after reunification. “Moldovans expect salaries and pensions to match Romania’s from day one,” he said.
Pressure on Brussels
Several experts see Sandu’s increasingly explicit references to reunification as a signal aimed at Brussels.
Sandu repeatedly campaigned on the promise of EU membership by 2030, a goal publicly backed by EU leaders but increasingly complicated by broader debates over Ukraine’s accession, EU enlargement fatigue, and the fact that many of its citizens already hold Romanian passports.
Dionis Cenusa, a non-resident fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, argued Sandu was also attempting to shield herself politically ahead of future elections if the EU timetable slips.
“The president is well aware that EU accession is unlikely before – or even after – 2030,” he said, adding that Sandu was using the prospect of reunification with Romania to pressure Brussels.
He added that the influence of the Romanian church, the shared language, and growing Romanian investment in cross-border infrastructure were also creating conditions for such a scenario, though resistance within parts of Moldovan society still made reunification unlikely.
The Transnistria factor
Experts warn reunification would also bring major legal and security complications, chiefly the unresolved status of Transnistria – the Russian-backed separatist enclave outside Chisinau’s control that hosts Russian troops and remains heavily dependent on Moscow.
Russia further tightened its grip two weeks ago by easing access to Russian citizenship for Transnistrian residents.
That raises the prospect of Russian military forces effectively ending up on EU or NATO territory in the event of reunification.
“Sandu is certainly not gaining political capital from this,” said Valeriu Pașa, the head of WatchDog, a Moldovan pro-democracy think-tank, arguing that Russian propaganda had seized on the issue to portray Sandu as unpatriotic.
Pașa said Sandu’s increasingly open references to unionism reflected concerns about Moldova’s long-term trajectory amid growing doubts over EU enlargement.
Referring to the recent suggestion by Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, for “associate membership” for Ukraine, he said such proposals created anxiety among leaders of candidate countries.
“Sandu is looking for a way to safeguard her accomplishments rather than watch her life’s work collapse,” he added.
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