The EU’s emergency protection scheme for Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s war is unlikely to continue in its current form beyond 2027, the Commission’s special envoy for Ukrainians in the EU, Ylva Johansson, said on Wednesday.

“I would be very surprised if temporary protection were prolonged as it is,” the former EU home affairs commissioner said, adding that “five years is enough for temporary protection.”

Triggered in March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) granted millions of Ukrainians the right to live and work across the EU without going through the asylum system. Initially designed as a short-term emergency measure, it has since been repeatedly extended.

The Commission last year proposed prolonging the scheme until March 2027 while beginning preparations for its eventual phase-out.

Johansson will brief EU home affairs ministers on the situation regarding protection for Ukrainian refugees on Thursday.

The discussion comes as EU governments grapple with how to move from an emergency response to a more durable framework for the millions of Ukrainians who have settled across the bloc since 2022. The Commission has recommended granting Ukrainians more stable legal status, such as national or EU residence permits for work, study or long-term residence.

When the directive was activated, many legal experts believed it allowed only two extensions, which would have capped protection in March 2025. The Commission later adopted a broader interpretation of the rules, first pushing the deadline to 2026 and then extending it once more to 2027 last year.

“It’s time to shift from protection of refugees into empowerment of the diaspora and to the future of Ukraine,” Johansson said, adding that “we need this shift even if the war is ongoing.”

If the war in Ukraine continues, she stressed, the EU will still offer protection to those fleeing the conflict. But the system could look different.

“It might be a different scope,” she said, suggesting that any future arrangement would likely be narrower or more targeted than the current scheme. “Member states will need to discuss it,” Johansson said.

Kyiv appears to share that view. According to Johansson, Ukrainian authorities also see the current framework as temporary by nature.

“They are clear that if there should be any prolongation, it has to limit the scope and the duration in a different way than just prolonging it as it is,” she said.

(aw, jp)