In terms of political experiments, Bulgaria has tried everything. In 2001, it brought from Madrid the former King Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, who was elected in a landslide but a few years later disappeared from politics when the miracles he had promised didn’t happen.

In 2021, another miracle-maker, showman Slavi Trifonov, threw his hat in the political ring. His party won the July elections but proved unable to form a government.

This time Bulgaria is bringing back home its highest EU official, Commissioner Mariya Gabriel, tasked by Boyko Borissov’s GERB party, which won the most votes in the 2 April election, with forming a government.

Even if she succeeds in forming a cabinet (which has been mission impossible following four consecutive snap elections), Gabriel will probably regret leaving her Commission job every single day.

To succeed in forming a government will require bringing together quarrelsome, antagonistic parties, a dangerous minefield for someone used to the smooth manners and polite manoeuvring in the cosy Berlaymont.

Gabriel was nominated by Borissov because she is affiliated with his party, which won 26.5% of the vote and has 69 MPs in the 240-seat parliament.

“We Continue the Change” of former reformist prime minister Kiril Petkov came second in the last elections with 24.5% and 64 seats, in coalition with a smaller party, Democratic Bulgaria. They remain staunchly opposed to Borissov and would not join a GERB-led cabinet, even if Gabriel is in charge.

The political parties more likely to join a Gabriel cabinet are the mostly ethnic Turkish “Movement for Rights and Freedoms” (DPS), who won 36 seats.

Trifonov’s “There is such a people” (ITN), who won 4% and has 11 MPs, might join, although Gabriel would be advised not to count on their continued support, as their political behaviour so far has been erratic, to say the least.

The three potential coalition partners have a total of 116 MPs, five short of a majority.

With the openly pro-Russian “Vazrazhdane” party (37 MPs) being excluded from Gabriel’s agenda, the kingmaker is the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) of Kornelia Ninova, which has 23 MPs, a safe number even if ITN should withdraw at some point.

BSP, however, is not an easy partner, especially because of its ‘pacifist’ policy vis-à-vis the conflict in Ukraine and its staunch opposition to Bulgaria providing military assistance to Kyiv. Also, BSP’s position regarding the adoption of the euro is ambiguous, as it considers it is too early to take such a step.

To lure Petkov’s party into a coalition, Gabriel has found a trick. She has put on the table the removal of controversial Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev, an issue close to the heart of the reformists, who are keen to get the ailing judiciary in order. Let’s see how this goes.

Gabriel is currently on unpaid leave, but she will need to resign by the time GERB is handed the mandate to form a government by President Rumen Radev. And then, there is no turning back for her, even if the effort to form a government collapses.

But she could not refuse Borissov this favour, especially since she became an EU parliamentarian thanks to him in 2009 and a Commissioner in 2017, to replace Kristalina Georgieva, and then again in 2019. It is also largely thanks to Borissov that she has been the vice-president of the European People’s Party since 2014.

Had Gabriel refused, pundits say, Borissov would not have put her on the list for next year’s European elections, and she was probably aware of that.

Is Gabriel going to be missed as Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth?

A lot of her portfolio was already taken over by Vice Presidents Margrethe Vestager and Vera Jourova, and by Internal market commissioner Thierry Breton.

It will be Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s decision whether another Bulgarian commissioner would take over her portfolio, or if a simple reshuffle would do.

Bulgaria needs a commissioner – at the very least in order not to feel isolated from top policy-making. But it also needs a government.

The risk is that it may not get any of those.

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The Roundup

France is progressing well in terms of integrating renewable energies into its energy mix, though the efforts are still insufficient to achieve the national and the EU objectives, according to the numbers published by the French Energy Transition Ministry on Wednesday.

France presented a plan to launch a €2 billion investment fund for critical metals on Wednesday, which according to former industry boss Philippe Varin is just a starting point, with more to come.

Following heated debates on Wednesday night, France’s National Assembly adopted a bill aimed at making it compulsory for town halls representing over 1,500 inhabitants to display both French and European flags.

Germany’s railway union EVG announced on Thursday a new 50-hour strike to take place from Sunday to Tuesday as wage talks with state train operator Deutsche Bahn (DBN.UL) and around 50 other rail companies dragged on without a resolution.

The European Parliament’s leading parliamentary committees have green-lighted the AI Act in a vote on Thursday, paving the way for plenary adoption in mid-June.

Last but not least, do not miss this week’s Politics Decoded.

Look out for….

• Commission Vice-President Vĕra Jourová in Berlin, meets Volker Wissing, Germany’s federal minister for digital and transport, and Wolfgang Schmidt, head of Chancellery.
• Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi meets Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna on Friday-Saturday.
• Informal meeting of foreign affairs ministers on Friday.