March 28. 2024. 11:26

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The Brief — Biden-Trump rematch?


President Joe Biden has said he will seek a second White House term in 2024, and it is very likely that his Republican challenger will again be Donald Trump. At the same time, a majority of Americans don’t want either of them to run. Does US democracy have a problem?

According to an NBCNews poll, 70% of Americans believe Biden should not run for re-election, with 51% of Democrats saying the same. The poll was taken before Biden officially announced his re-election bid.

When an incumbent president is running, there is little chance for alternative candidates emerging from his party.

In the Republican camp, no heavyweight has emerged except Trump. Republicans who have given strong indications they plan to run have not yet announced their candidacy, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Former Vice President Mike Pence, and Senator Tim Scott (South Carolina).

But DeSantis, widely considered a top potential Republican candidate, is trailing Trump significantly in early polls: Nearly 70% stand by Trump despite concerns over his electability due to ongoing legal investigations.

Incidentally, DeSantis was also investigated last year to determine if he had improperly used funds to transport migrants across the US on chartered flights

Half of those who say Biden, 80, should not run again cite his age as a “major” reason. Biden is already the oldest US president ever.

Meanwhile, 60% of Americans, including a third of Republicans, say, Trump, 76, should not run for president. His age, however, doesn’t seem to be the main argument; he is simply too controversial. Still, he has faithful fans.

To us Europeans, it may look strange that so many American conservatives, including women, support Trump despite his various sexual misconduct scandals.

Having said this, in Italy, Silvio Berlusconi was also able to escape electorally unharmed from his Bunga Bunga escapades in his younger years.

It may also look strange that no younger candidates have emerged, despite the fatigue with old faces, which opinion polls seem to indicate.

A candidate who has already served in office is a safer bet for the political powerhouses because nobody can be sure what skeletons new challengers may have in their closets. Candidates who have already served have proved immune from an embarrassing past, at least.

Trump is the perfect example – his detractors may see him as a Russian asset, but his supporters aren’t the least dissuaded. Conversely, Trump has tried to harm Biden over his son Hunter’s employment with Burisma, a company in Ukraine, but was unsuccessful.

A campaign between Biden and Trump will undoubtedly be a rehash of old scandals and risks being quite dull.

Trump’s camp will certainly use a collection of videos in which Biden stumbles, misspeaks or appears absent-minded. Although Trump is only four years younger, he looks in good physical shape and will try to make the most of it, appearing in person at many election rallies nationwide.

The NBC News survey finds a combined 41% of registered voters saying they’d definitely or probably vote for Biden in the general election, versus 47% who say they’d vote for the eventual Republican nominee.

Biden’s approve/disapprove rating is also declining, from 45% approval in January to 41% in April. In that sense, the Democrats have a problem, and the outcome of a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024 could now go the other way.

Seen from Europe, it already looks like Biden is set to lose against Trump, although American politics has often surprised European observers.

In any case, European politicians would be well advised to keep options open in case of Trump’s return to the White House.

French President Emmanuel Macron frequently draws fire from his European peers when he advocates strategic autonomy for Europe, but he is right. US support to Europe (and Ukraine) cannot be taken for granted after January 2025.

In 2024, European will vote in European elections.

European political families are scrambling to identify the messages that motivate the citizens to vote. Making Europe a global player is certainly an appealing message. If the US democracy has a problem, the silver lining is that it may benefit European democracy.


The Roundup

The European Commission presented on Thursday a legislative package including measures to facilitate access to patents needed to comply with technical standards.

Geopolitical interests raised by Turkey over the divided island of Cyprus are threatening to become an issue for efforts to forge closer EU-NATO ties, a declared goal of both organisations.

The European Commission presented the eagerly-awaited pharmaceutical package on Wednesday (26 April), employing a set of regulatory incentives for the industry to improve patient access to new drugs.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive could change the dynamics of a war that has slowed into a bloody battle of attrition and military experts say the length of the front could stretch Russia’s defences.

As the European Union prepares to reform its electricity market, the wind industry has urged policymakers to avoid rocking the boat and keep as close as possible to the European Commission’s original proposal.

Some main features of the long-awaited reform of the EU’s pharmaceutical rules address the risks of drug shortages by making the industry more responsible for the security of supply and granting the EU medicine agency an increased coordination role.

French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne presented a government roadmap on Wednesday (26 April) aiming to lay down “concrete solutions” in areas including immigration, ecology, health, and education and appease the nation after fierce protests over a recent pension reform.

Don’t forget to check out this weeks Politics Decoded: Candid Johansson makes the case for refugee protection.

Look out for…

  • Commission Vice President Dubravka Šuica in Vienna, delivers keynote speech for EPP Workshop on family, integration, and subsidiarity.
  • Equality Commissioner Helena Dalli gives opening speech at European Diversity Month Ceremony.
  • Eurogroup meeting on Friday.
  • Informal meeting of EU economy and finance ministers and central bank governors begins on Friday.