June 23. 2024. 1:51

The Daily

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Turkish election in 4 weeks: Does İnce ruin the opposition victory?

With only a month to go until the Turkish election, officials released the list of candidates: incumbent right-wing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will face three opponents in the first round on 14 May.

The primary opponent is 74-year-old Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the centre-left CHP party. He is backed by a multiparty alliance that favours Turkish integration with the European Union and secularisation and democratisation of the state.

The two minor candidates are Muharrem İnce of the centre-left Homeland Party, which split from the CHP in 2020, and the far-right Sinan Oğan.

Latest first-round polling suggests that the two main candidates will go head to head in the first round: Kılıçdaroğlu is polling at around 47%, while Erdoğan is scoring around 43%. İnce is polling at about 7% and Oğan at 2%.

At least 50% is needed to be elected president in the first round. If no candidate reaches this quorum, a run-off takes place.

Because İnce splits the left-of-centre opposition vote, he could deny Kılıçdaroğlu a victory in the first round.

The enthusiasm this could cause in the right-wing camp, which has been on the defensive for some time, might even secure Erdoğan another term.

Current polls suggest that Kılıçdaroğlu would beat Erdoğan in a second round with 53% to 47%.

In the last election in 2018, Erdoğan won the first round with 52.3% of the vote. İnce, ba CHP candidate at the time, won 30.8%.